Round 21 of the AFL Premiership Season for 2022 kicks off on Friday night this week with another blockbuster as second place Melbourne Demons face off against the third place Collingwood Magpies at the home of football, the MCG. Games don’t get any bigger than this with the winner moving into outright second place and the Magpies are coming in hot on a 10-game winning streak.

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In addition to previews for each and every slate this season, Daily Fantasy Rankings will continue with our AFL Resources page. This section provides you all the data you need to build your best line-ups. It includes daily cheat sheets for Draftstars, Player Correlation tables, Player Out tables, Scores Against tables, Tagging information, statistical breakdowns and much more!


CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR CHEAT SHEET FOR TONIGHT
 

Smatho and Roody have put together an episode of the Draftstars AFL Show as they breakdown the Friday Draftstars Contest!
 

 

Betting Odds

Odds: Melbourne $1.36 vs Collingwood $3.20
Line: Melbourne -17.5
Total Points: 154.5

Bet now at Ladbrokes!


Weather



There is a slight chance of showers this Friday, however they are expected in the morning and given the minimal amount and the world class drainage at the MCG I would not expect there to be any impact on this game by Friday night.


Where to Attack?

Let's take a closer look at our AFL Data Tools to find any trends that might help us construct winning lineups on Draftstars for this match.



It has been the same story all season when Melbourne are involved… stack their opponents backs. This week will be interesting, as Collingwood have turned away from possession football this season, to great success. The Magpies average the 7th fewest disposals as a team this season and have one of the lowest amounts of uncontested possessions. That said, Melbourne will force them into more possessions then they would like across halfback just by the way they structure up.



Collingwood’s more direct approach has resulted in their opponents accumulated possessions through the midfield. In particular Collingwood have given up the most points in the league to the oppositions top three scoring midfields, which opens up the door for stacking the Demons premium priced midfielders in Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Christian Petracca.

Game Script –  Collingwood backs, Melbourne midfielders


VALUE PLAYS

Darcy Moore ($7,720) has shown over 10x upside at this price point earlier in the season, but this matchup stands out for him as the best in the league. Moore has been splitting the kick ins with Nick Daicos predominately for the Magpies and as noted above the Demons give up the most points in the league to defenders this season. They specifically concede over 8 points per player above league average to the designated kicker.

Bailey Fritsch ($8,770) has found form in the past three rounds posting 75, 67 and 78 fantasy points during that stretch while kicking 9 goals in the same period. This play is more to do with avoiding forwards against the Demons vaunted defence than targeting the Magpies, however when you isolate the forwards by position Collingwood are more susceptible to general forwards than key forwards.


MID-PRICE PLAY

Jordan De Goey ($11,390) attended 71% of the Magpies centre bounces last week with Taylor Adams going out to injury early in the game. Adams is out again this round, which means we should see plenty of De Goey through the middle. He hasn’t shown the ability to hit the 100 point mark in a while, however on this single game slate a return in the 90s at this price point will likely be sufficient.


PREMIUM PLAYS

Clayton Oliver ($16,490)… we are going right back to the well here after Oliver let us down this week while facing a lot of attention from Fremantle. The Magpies will be unlikely to tag given they haven’t shown much interest in it this year and they give up the most points in the league to inside midfielders at over 8 points per player above league average. There is no greater inside midfielder than Oliver who should have field day in this matchup at home.

Nick Daicos ($13,260) has already taken over the reins of the number one player the Magpies want the ball in the hands of coming out of half back. He is having one of the best first seasons of football we have ever seen in the AFL and his fantasy scores are reflective of this averaging just under 90 points on the season. As we noted above the designated kicker against Melbourne gets a huge boost and we have seen huge upside from Daicos already this year posting games of 147, 117, 114 and 109 from his last 8 games.


Suggested Draftstars Team

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