AFL Caleb Serong

The bye round gives us a little two game slate to attack this Saturday for Round 13 of the AFL Premiership Season. First up, the Hawks travel to Perth to take on the Dockers with wet conditions expected, while the sun will hopefully be shining at the GABBA where the Lions will host the Saints on Saturday night. It's a later start time than your typical AFL Saturday slate as we have to wait until 4:10pm AEST to get the action started.

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In addition to previews for each and every slate this season, Daily Fantasy Rankings will continue with our AFL Resources page. This section provides you all the data you need to build your best line-ups. It includes daily cheat sheets for Draftstars, Player Correlation tables, Player Out tables, Scores Against tables, Tagging information, statistical breakdowns and much more!


CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR CHEAT SHEET FOR TODAY
 

Fremantle vs Hawthorn at OPTUS Stadium (FRE -39.5, Total 153.5)

Brisbane vs St Kilda at the GABBA (BRI -18.5, 169.5)

Weather

Perth

 

Brisbane

 

Looks like there is a lot of potential for wet weather football out west with up to 15mm of rain predicted in Perth. Keep an eye on the conditions as game time approaches but I would be taking it easy on players relying on uncontested possessions and marks in that contest and focusing more on inside tackling midfielders as well as the rucks.

Absolutely perfect football conditions in Brisbane… that game should be a as the second and sixth place sides jostle for ladder position up the top. Lets play some fantasy football!

Where to Attack?

A trend that has become common across the league is that the structure and strategy top teams employ allows the opposition to rack up points across their backline. The Saints have employed similar strategies this season giving up the second most points in the league to their opponents defenders.

 

The Hawks have given up the most points in the league to midfielders this season at over 8 points per player above league average. Interestingly they have been killed in contested possessions and also get tackled at one of the highest rates in the league, which bodes well for the Dockers inside midfielders given the expected wet weather conditions.

Game Script – Fremantle midfielders, Brisbane backs

VALUE PLAYS

Brandon Starcevich (DS $8,790) is my number one value target back for the Lions to stack up with one of their premium players. Over the last five weeks, he has consistently posted in the 60-70 point range and as noted above this round, he has one of the top matchups in the league. If you want to shift around the value players, Harris Andrews also offers upside in this position.

Mitch Owens (DS $6,770) is the number one value option on this slate and will likely be one of the highest-owned players. Fresh off a monster 95-point game against North Melbourne last time out, playing up at Brisbane against the Lions is quite a different matchup so you do have the option to fade here if you like. That said, with a ceiling in the 90s and the fact that Owens attended nearly 40% of the Saints centre bounces last game at near minimum price is hard to pass up.

MID-PRICED PLAYS

Sean Darcy (DS $12,660) is playing in the wet against the Hawks injury-ravaged ruck setup. This is one of the best matchups in the league for ruckmen as Hawthorn have conceded the second most points this season to opponent's number one ruck. Darcy has huge upside, already posting two 120+ point games this season. The conditions and matchup should enable him to bounce right back from a 45-point performance last week.

Cam Rayner (DS $9,230) has started to see a lift in his midfield time the last two weeks attending nearly 50% of the Lions centre bounces. He has yet to see a real breakout game but has posted two 75+ point games in his last three weeks, which on a two-game slate at this price point, could be all you need. I see a big game coming up in this role, however, and will be looking to catch it at lowish ownership before it happens.

PREMIUM PLAYS

Caleb Serong (DS $14,120) / Will Brodie (DS $13,270) are both priced nicely and will absolutely love the wet conditions for this game. You can either stack them up together or, if going with just one, I would lean to Serong who has posted four 104+ scores from his last five games, averaging almost 9 tackles per game over that period.

Fyfe back may eat into Brodie’s midfield time, however for the first game I think Fyfe will likely spend a significant amount of time forward, so I like the idea of fading Fyfe this game, even at his low $12k price range.

Jai Newcombe (DS $13,220) is an absolute monster on the inside. The conditions will suit him as much as any player on the ground. Last week he posted a score of 108 fantasy points behind 12 tackles and if the rain comes in as forecast in Perth today, tackling will be the key to all the big fantasy scores.

Dragon's Suggested Draftstars Team

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