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AFL 2019 Finals Fantasy Tips: Brisbane vs GWS
The second weekend of finals footy is here with both games featuring a major single game DFS contest on the platforms. We will be breaking down each individual game to help you pick the best possible team. This second game of semi-final weekend is Brisbane vs GWS at the Gabba on Saturday the 14th of September, at 7:25pm AEST. The major contests include:
- AFL $15,000 Lions vs Giants Special at Moneyball
- AFL $2,000 Lions vs Giants ($2 Entry) at Moneyball
- AFL $60,000+ Lions vs Giants at Draftstars
- AFL $3,000+ Lions vs Giants $2 Mini at Draftstars
- AFL $600+ Lions vs Giants (Single Entry) at Draftstars
Smatho and Big Hef from the DFS Down Under Show broke down this matchup between Brisbane and GWS discussing their DFS plays. Hef also probed Smatho's lack of movie knowledge! Check it out here
In addition to the previews for each and every slate during the finals, Daily Fantasy Rankings has also unveiled our AFL Resources page. This section provides you all the data you need to build your best line-ups. It includes daily cheat sheets for both Draftstars and Moneyball, Player Correlation tables, Player Out tables, Scores Against tables, Tagging information, statistical breakdowns and much more!
The game as seen by the bookmakers:
Brisbane vs GWS at the Gabba (bookmakers’ total 166.5, line BRI -8.5)
Where to Attack
Another cut throat finals matchup between two of the toughest teams to score fantasy points against in the league this year. Incredible both sides conceded 1,498 points per game this year, the second lowest in the league. It is worth highlighting that GWS had been much leakier as the season wound down, giving up just under 1,600 over the past 5 weeks, however they now have close to a full squad back.
Despite this, when these sides met in Round 16 at Showground Stadium it was a fantasy shoot out, Brisbane had 5 players over 100 points, while GWS had 4. It was primarily the midfielders who benefited with Lachie Neale, Stephen Coniglio, Zac Williams and Dayne Zorko all going 120+.
The backline does not look to be the best avenue to target in this matchup, with both Brisbane and GWS restricting opponent’s defenders this season. The premium backs (top 3 scoring) have only averaged 79 and 78 points per game respectively for the two teams, which is the 2nd and 3rd lowest marks in the league in 2019.
GWS have typically been brutal to score against for midfielders this year. They have given up the second fewest points in the league to the position, and the fewest to the top 3 scoring players at 101 points per game. A big part of this is the Matt de Boer impact, which we will breakdown below. The Lions on the other hand have been closer to league average giving a lean to GWS midfielders on this slate.
Ruck offers us the most obvious decision on the slate, with the Lions conceding just the fourth most points in the league this season to number 1 rucks. Stefan Martin still has juice left in the tank and he has been notoriously difficult to score against throughout his career, and now paired up with Oscar McInerney it is a tough challenge for anyone. On the other hand, GWS have been getting destroyed in the ruck all season, giving up 97 points per game.
Brisbane have not utilised the tag this year, which leaves us with all GWS midfielders open for a stress free selection. GWS, on the other hand, hold the Matt de Boer trump card. De Boer has been absolutely blowing up the oppositions top inside midfielder all season, with just one opponent even managing to top the 90 point mark this year.
De Boer did not play in their recent matchup, so there is no history to draw on. However, the obvious target will be Lachie Neale, who has consistently drawn attention from taggers this season (while Zorko has been given free reign). In the 6 games Neale has had an obvious tag this season he has topped the 100 point mark just once (in a game against Carlton where the tag was released at half time), and averages just 85 points per game.
Cam Rayner (MB $4,200, DS $7,240) has seen a small price bump after his performance last week where as we predicted last week he thrived in the contested environment of finals football and had arguably the best game of his career. This week should be a similar game environment based on how the Giants played last week and although Rayner has a lower margin for error with the higher price, Brisbane are expected to win this game, which should lead to more opportunity up forward.
Harris Andrews (MB $4,900, DS $6,910) … on this slate you are going to need to find some value with little on offer. As noted above the premium midfield plays are likely to stand out scoring wise in this matchup and given it is a single game slate you don’t need to knock every pick out of the park. Andrews’s price has been in decline, particularly on Draftstars and at his current price point he has posted 9x return 8 times from 19 games this season.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Allen Christensen (MB $6,200, DS $9,690) / Jarrod Berry (MB $7,300, DS $10,900)
One of these two or both will be locks in all sides for me on this slate. Mitch Robinson is out with his injured hamstring, which opens up a lot of midfield time on the wing. The obvious players to soak that in my mind are Christensen and Berry who both rotate between forward and midfield depending on the game and matchup.
Christensen has been in solid form for his price points recently, posting 80+ fantasy points in his last four games (discounting the injury game against Geelong). He also performs much better at home averaging 80.5 points from his last 22 games at the GABBA.
Berry on the other hand brings a bigger ceiling, with two 90 point games and a 121 from his last 5 matches (note that the 121 came during a game where Brisbane lost midfielder Dayne Zorko).
Stefan Martin (MB $8,100, DS $13,400) has been solid as a rock to close out the year posting 5 straight 90+ scores. This matchup will be his easiest of that entire stretch going against Shane Mumford and the Giants who have given up the second most points in the league to number 1 rucks at 97 points per game. Martin also loves playing at the GABBA where he has averaged 95.6 points over his last five games at the ground. In my opinion Martin or saving money on McInerney will be the choice at ruck and I will favour Martin on the fact that I am not expecting huge scoring from a large number of other premium price players on this slate.
Jacob Hopper (MB $8,800, DS $13,880) returned in a permanent midfield role for the first final against the Western Bulldogs. This pushed Toby Greene forward as expected last week, and Josh Kelly also looked to be playing more of an outside role at times (given the Giants have De Boer in the middle as a tagger). Hopper is nicely priced below the top few premium mids to give some salary relief and posted 106 points when these two sides met earlier in the year.
I will have a total fade on Lachie Neale (MB $9,500, DS $13,970) and Toby Greene (MB $9,900, DS $15,220) for this matchup. Neale due to the De Boer effect as discussed above, and Greene due to the same reasons noted last game. Effectively with Hopper and Kelly back in the team, to go with De Boer tagging a midfielder Greene is essentially back to his forward role prior to the mass injury crisis that struck the Giants earlier in the year. He is priced far too high for playing forward, as was evident last week where he managed just 84 fantasy points despite kicking 3 goals.
Dragon's Suggested Moneyball Team
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