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Our last Friday night NRL double-header follows the usual formula, absolute stinker into huge game. The bad stuff starts at 6pm, with the Canterbury Bulldogs (12th) hosting the Manbly Sea Eagles (11th) at Accor Stadium. I call it a stinker, but at least it’s close and the teams can battle it out for 11th spot. Then at 7:55pm the Sydney Roosters (6th) and the South Sydney Rabbitohs (7th) play the first game at the rebuilt Allianz Stadium. Although a top 4 finish is out of reach, 5th place is potentially very attainable which would give a much easier first final against the Raiders or the Broncos.

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Team News

There are two changes for the Bulldogs, both in the forward pack. Corey Waddell comes into the second-row, forcing Joe Stimson back to the bench. Tevita Pangai comes onto the bench, with both Harrison Edwards and Joshua Stuckey losing their spots.

There’s only one change for Manly, with Josh Aloiai suspended and Andrew Davey coming in. There is a major reshuffle though. Davey replaces Ethan Bullemor (bench) in the second row. Ben Trbojevic also drops to the bench, with Kaeo Weekes promoted to fullback and Tolu Koula shifting to centre. Toafofoa Sipley is named to start at prop, with Kurt De Luis back to the bench.

The Roosters have three changes. Daniel Tupou and Victor Radley are injured, and Lindsay Collins suspended. Paul Momirovski replaces Tupou on the wing. Sio Taukeiaho is promoted to lock in Radleys place, with Fletcher Baker and Terrell May filling the vacant bench spots. It’s a pretty solid cover for three representative players, and the likes of Egan Butcher, Matt Lodge and Connor Watson will take on a bigger role also.

Finally, the Rabbitohs have just two changes. Campbell Graham is out, with Jaxson Paulo taking his spot at centre. Kodi Nikorima loses his utility spot on the bench, replaced directly by Peter Mamouzelos. Tom Burgess is named to start at prop in a switch with Hame Sele.

Betting Odds

Bulldogs $1.50 v Eagles $2.60

Roosters $1.80 v Rabbitohs $2.00

Bet now at Ladbrokes!

Overview

The Bulldogs get to be favourites in my book, because they’re at home and Manly have just about given up on getting anything out of 2022, but it’s a little closer than the odds suggest. One way to put it is I’ll tip the Bulldogs, but bet on the Eagles. I like the Roosters, despite their outs, but it’s the type of game that will be tight either way and potentially not that great for fantasy. For the multi-game slate it might be best to target players from the first game more heavily.

Love It - Josh Addo-Carr $12,880

It’s been a long season at Belmore, but the Fox has still managed to grind out an average of ~39, only a point or so below what he did at Melbourne last season. A few massive ceiling games have helped that cause, which is why I’m very interested at this reasonable price tag. He’s not a screaming value, but I think the Dogs will get up for this game and Manly might be cooked. The gives increased opportunity to score, and a couple of tries feels like a strong possibility for the speedster. Several of his backline teammates are also very much in play.

Love It - Sam Walker $13,910

It took me a while to twig to this, but since Walker switched to the number 7 jersey (halfback) in round 16, he’s averaged 53 in 8 games. There is a few big games against weak opposition dragging that number up, but his base stats have definitely improved with more than 200 extra kick metres per game compared to the earlier part of the season. He’s not the finished product yet, but the talent is immense and with the goal kicking duties adding nearly 8 points to his base average, he’s a decent value at this price despite the tough matchup. Perhaps more importantly, it’s slim pickings at the HH position. I’m willing to pay up for Burton, and the likes of Verrills, Havili and Watson have merit, but it’s hard to get excited about much else.

Love It - Jared Waerea-Hargreaves $11,350

The Roosters middle forward have been opened wide by the absence of Radley and Collins, with all of JWH, Lodge, Taukeiaho and E Butcher likely to benefit compared to last week. Despite clearly showing his age this season, the fiery prop still has a score of ~50 in him when required to play bigger minutes. Like HH, there’s not a lot to get excited about at FWD, so the salary saving on JWH stands out more than usual.

Hate It - Paul Vaughan $16,990

Another ageing prop who hasn’t been a great play this season is Vaughan, who is likely playing his final game in the NRL. His minutes have dipped in the second half of the season from ~50 to ~45, bringing his average down a few points to the low 40s. Essentially, Max King has taken a bigger share fo the prop rotation, and Vaughan has paid the price. Unlike JWH, this is a very steep price for the output we’ve been getting, and his season high is under 60, which definitely won’t get the job done.

Hate It - Luke Keary $12,950

On the flip side of the Sam Walker situation is Keary, who was previously wearing the no 7 before missing a month with injury. The +200m of kicking has come directly from Keary, who has averaged almost a full 10 points less in the 6 games since the change. I have no doubt that the change has been beneficial for both players (and the Roosters) in real life, but it’s horrific for Keary in fantasy. He now relies on a tracking stats for any ceiling scores, and it’s unlikely he’s going to find enough of those against the Rabbitohs.

Who Knows - Kaeo Weekes $9900

My notes on Weekes are “gun young half/fullback, lightning quick”. I must have pulled that from a preseason article. A World Athletics website tells me he runs a sub 11 second 100m. He sounds like a player, and I’m going to liken him to fellow 20 year old speedster Tolu Koula who has averaged ~35 in 19 games for Manly this season. So, my best guess is that he is a value if he does indeed play fullback, and the matchup is potentially a solid one. I definitely want some exposure, but going to heavy on him seems very risky.
 

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