daily fantasy sports articles

The final round of the NRL regular season kicks off with a blockbuster on Thursday night. Things get underway at 7:50pm, with the Parramatta Eels (5th) hosting the Melbourne Storm (4th) at Commbank Stadium. As the ladder positions suggest, the winner of this game claims the final spot in the top 4, so it’s full-steam for both outfits.

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Team News

There’s only one change for the entire game, and that comes on the bench for the Storm. Tom Eisenhuth is injured, with Chris Lewis taking his spot. They’ve also reshuffled the lineup, as we’ve seen often lately, with Brandon Smith and Tui Kamikamica named on the bench. Felise Kaufusi and Josh King move into the starting spots. This time I think it’s likely that one of the former start in place of King, but Kaufusi should hold the starting spot.

There’s not much to say about the Eels team. Marata Niukore and Ryan Matterson have been swapping the starting lock position, but either way Matterson gets the lions share of the minutes. Shaun Lane and Isaiah Papali’i are both in superb form not he edges, making the team extremely dangerous on both sides.

Betting Odds

Eels $2.00 v Storm $1.81 - Bet now at Ladbrokes!

Overview

Good luck splitting these teams right now! I lean slightly towards the Eels with the home game and a more youthful outfit, but there’s nothing in it. It could be a real arm wrestle, so picking players that don’t rely too heavily on tries could be wise. Otherwise a nice balanced lineup seems to be the play.

Love It - David Nofoaluma $12,920

There are a few decent plays at OB, including Meaney, Olam and Gutherson. The pricing is very depressed at this position, in recognition of the tough matchups for both teams. So, I thought I’d highlight Nofoaluma as one of the more expensive options who still as a lot of merit. A known point scorer thanks to his penchant for breaking tackles (and the odd try), this is by far the best team he’s ever played on, and a 45 average in his 4 games at the Storm could be a sign of what’s to come.

Love It - Harry Grant $20,850

I’m recommending the Storm’s dynamic hooker a lot lately, but it’s hard not to when his price refuses to go up. He’s averaging ~64 in the starting role this year, and over his career so far. That’s comparable to what we’ve seen from Munster this season, who is a little more expensive and more likely to be slowed down by the matchup. There is merit to all of the cheaper options at the HH position also, so it’s more of a lean towards Grant than any strong conviction that he’s clearly the best play on the day.

Love It - Junior Paulo $11,210

The bullocking prop has been a little down this season, mostly thanks to a prop in his minutes by about 5 per game. He’s a big game player, and I suspect that those mantes will tick up again now that we’re at the business end of the season. The presence of Jake Arthur on the bench is another small boost to those minutes prospects. It’s not easy to find value on this slate, so taking this clear discount at the FWD position seems like a necessary play even if the ceiling isn’t massive.

Hate It - Shaun Lane $20,660

Anyone who reads these articles every week knows that I like to fade the form player performing well above their career level, and therefore more expensive than usual. Lane has achieved that status by averaging 68 over the last 6 weeks, about 20 points above his usual level. I would 2 of those games were against a strong opponent, and the Storm are every chance to slow him down enough to make him a pass. He’d probably need 70+ to become a problem fade, and I feel comfortable making that bet.

Hate It - Xavier Coates $9910

I’ll go the other way here, where some people might be looking at Coates and Blake as cheap OBs to get some salary relief. It makes some sense given the whole position might struggle to put up a ceiling score in this game, but I think Coates is a clear avoid. His 3 best scores this season have come against cellar-dwellers, and even with multiple tries he might struggle to get to 40. By far the most likely outcome is something well below 30 points. It’s not too far up to some more reliable scorers, so I recommend saving that salary elsewhere.

Who Knows - Reed Mahoney $14,300

If we’d seen this price for Mahoney a year ago, it would have been a rare opportunity to use the lock button. Back then he was closer to a 60 point scorer than 50, but now he’s languishing at 44 in his last 11 games despite playing the exact same role (70+ minutes at hooker). A look at the stats suggests that he’s tackling slightly less, and missing a lot more of his tackles, as well as being less damaging with his running and creative play. Overall, he’s a worse footballer this year. But…he’s so CHEAP! Even in this bad run he’s scored 50+ in 4/11 games, and that’s hard to say no to at this price. I have no idea how he’ll go, but I have to suggest that we play a moderate amount of him (30-50%).

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