A 10-game slate this Monday, with a much more balanced schedule when it comes to early and late window games. We kick off with 6 early games, featuring a couple of fascinating matchups, including a quarterback debut for the Falcons, with Desmond Ridder set to start against NFC South rivals, the Saints. We also see the Lions head to New York to take on the Jets, and the Jaguars host the Cowboys, in the game of the morning. The late slate is highlighted by the Chargers hosting the Titans, and the Bucs hosting the Bengals. Should be some great football.

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Quarterback

Jalen Hurts - $16,890

Another week, another Jalen Hurts masterclass. Hurts threw for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst also rushing for 77 yards and a touchdown in the Eagles’ demolition job over the Giants last week, netting him his 3rd straight 30+ score in DFS. Everything sets up beautifully this week for Hurts, and he should be an auto selection in your squad/s. Since week 10, the Bears rank 31st in success rate per dropback, yards per attempt, and 32nd in EPA per dropback against opposing quarterbacks. Since trading away two of their better defenders, the Bears haven’t been able to stop anyone. Hurts is currently ranked top 5 in most passing metrics, and 1st or 2nd in rushing metrics for quarterbacks. Expect another 30+ performance here for Hurts.

Justin Herbert - $14,350

Herbert gets an A+ matchup this week, as the Chargers host the Titans, who are currently conceding the 2nd most points to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL. Whilst Herbert doesn’t have the rushing upside of a Jalen Hurts, he is as good as anyone in the NFL as a pure passer, and with his two primary weapons in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back, Herbert is poised to deliver. Since week 11, Herbert has the most passing yards in the NFL, whilst ranking 9th in adjusted completion rate. Whilst I love the upside of Herbert, this is more a play against the Titans, who rank 31st in passing yards per game, 30th in EPA per dropback, and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed.

 

Running Back

Derrick Henry - $13,930

Henry bounced back to form last week, despite a poor second half against the Jaguars. Henry ran for 121 yards and a touchdown, whilst also catching 3 receptions for 34 yards. This week though, I expect Henry to go massive. The Chargers’ run defence is basically non-existent, with their only decent run defence performance for months coming last week against the Dolphins, who flat out refused to run the ball. Since week 10, the Chargers rank 27th in rushing yards per game, 26th in rushing success rate, and 24th in EPA per rush allowed, whilst also ranking 24th in rush defence DVOA. Henry should eat this week, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t rush for 100+ yards and 1+ touchdown.

Miles Sanders - $12,140

Sanders has massive upside, and gets a plus matchup this week against the Bears. The Bears currently rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, and since week 10 rank 29th in explosive run rate allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, and 25th in EPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed. Added to the plus matchup, is the tremendous form Sanders is in. Sanders currently ranks 12th in fantasy points per game amongst running backs, 7th in redzone touches, 8th in breakaway runs and 5th in total touchdowns. I see the Eagles getting out to an early lead and leaning on the running game, led by Sanders.

Tony Pollard - $11,690

Since Ezekiel Elliott’s return from injury, Pollard has led the snap count over Elliott in 3 of the 4 games. It appears Head Coach Mike McCarthy has finally got the memo, that Pollard is the true RB1 at Dallas. Pollard has 10 touchdowns over the past 6 games, 7 rushing and 3 receiving, showing he can score in many different ways. Elliott still has the advantage in red zone usage, but I can see that slowly shifting towards Pollard. As his touches increase, his scores should be maintained, and he is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

 

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase - $14,920

Chase is back from injury, and is back to his beasting ways. He’s dominating this Bengals offense, currently garnering 50% endzone target share, 38.9% air yard share, and 35.5% target share. He currently ranks 4th amongst wide receivers in redzone targets, and 9th in deep targets, despite missing 4 games. The Buccaneers are decent against the pass; however, they don’t have anyone who can match up with Chase. It appears Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will suit up this week, meaning the Bucs will struggle to key in on Chase. Expect 100+ yards and redzone targets for the 2nd year receiver.

CeeDee Lamb - $15,580

Lamb has had a couple of down weeks over the past month, however, gets a solid matchup against the Jaguars this week, who have given up the 6th most fantasy points to slot wide receivers since week 7, with slot corner Tre Herndon currently giving up a 133.0 passer rating this season. Lamb currently accumulates 29.1% target share, 35.1% air yard share, and is 11th in deep targets and 19th in redzone targets. This game has the 3rd highest total in this slate, so expect plenty of points for both sides.

Mike Williams - $10,140

Williams is a huge target for Justin Herbert, and had a big comeback game last week, going for 116 yards and a touchdown. Williams is the main deep threat for Herbert, and that is perfect for this matchup against a Titans team that has been shredded deep. The Titans have conceded the most deep pass touchdowns, most deep passing yards, and 3rd highest deep completion rate. The Titans are currently missing 9, count them 9, defensive backs, whilst another 2 are questionable heading into the game. Williams has every chance to burn this secondary, and once again score big.

 

Tight End

Greg Dulcich - $6,590

A great matchup this week for Dulcich, who has proved an astute draft choice this year for the Broncos. The Cardinals currently allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, the highest catch rate, and the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Dulcich currently ranks 2nd amongst tight ends for air yard share and average depth of target (aDOT), whilst also ranking 2nd among tight ends for deep targets. Despite the Broncos’ offense struggling to get anything going this season, this is a great chance for Dulcich to have his biggest game of the year.

Chigoziem Okonkwo - $5,320

Little bit of a speculator here, in a spot where money can be saved. Okonkwo has seen his target share spike over the past 3 games, averaging over 5 targets per game in that time. Given the sudden flare up, there is a big chance he reverts to the mean, which could see his targets drop back below 3. For the price, he could be worth taking on, as a high risk, high reward type player. He gets a nice matchup to try and keep the run alive, as the Chargers rank dead last in yards per receptions to tight ends, whilst also ranking 24th in DVOA against tight ends. Not a sure thing, but a fun point of difference.


 

D/ST

Philadelphia Eagles - $6,600

The Eagles’ defence is amongst the best in the league, and they currently rank 1st in sacks and interceptions. The Bears currently rank 8th in the league for total turnovers allowed, giving the Eagles a fantastic opportunity at forcing multiple turnovers in this game. There’s also a decent chance at weather in this game, potentially lending this game to a low scoring affair, despite the high total in the betting market. The Bears offensive line has also struggled this season, despite having one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, giving up the 5th most sacks in the NFL.

 

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