We went so close to picking 3 winners in a row, with Daniel Berger collapsing with a 5 shot lead on Sunday at The Honda Classic and instead handing a maiden victory to Austrian Sepp Straka in impressive fashion. We move on the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, held at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Florida. Last year's champion was Bryson DeChambeau, although he won’t be defending thanks to some injury issues. Some other past champions in the field include Tyrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Martin Laird and Marc Leishman.

 

Like last week, the course has a huge amount of water in play. It is also a reasonably long course, meaning that caution tee shots are often followed by unusually long approach shots (200+ yards). Wind can play a huge part here, although it does look fairly mild this week with only some moderate activity on the weekend to worry about. The winning score can often be rather low, so get ready for a lot of double bogeys again after last week.

 

Draftstars has once again posted a $10,000 prize pool, including $970 to first place. There is also a $2 Mini and a Single Entry tournament. The aim in DFS golf is always first and foremost to get as many players as possible through the cut, with the winner usually needing all 6 golfers to still be playing on the weekend. After that it is of course very helpful to pick the winner for the week, as well as some other high finishers.

 

 

Love It- Will Zalatoris $19,960

Now that Scottie Scheffler has won an event, Zalatoris has claimed the mantle of best young player yet to take down a tournament. He got so close two starts ago when losing to Luke List in a playoff at the Farmers Insurance Open, and his game is primed to challenge again. Only playing once in the last month should have him well rested, with his incredible ball-striking talent perfect for this course (and most others). The big weakness in his game is his putting, which was the only thing that held him back at this event last year when finishing 10th. With some quality players above him on the board, I’m feeling good about Willy Z's chances this week.

 

Love It- Scottie Scheffler $22,480

Speaking of Scheffler, I’m doubling down on this supremely talented 25 year-old. Unlike Zalatoris, his game doesn’t really have a weakness. He’s better than the average PGA Tour player in pretty much every category. His 10 events this season have delivered five top-7 finishes, and he’s now ranked #6 in the world. He finished 15th in his tournament debut two years ago while struggling mightily on the greens, so I think his ceiling here could easily be another win.

 

Love It- Sahith Theegala $14,360

Sticking with the youth movement, Theegala is a year younger than the two above, at 24 years old. He doesn’t have the same sort of runs on the board just yet, mostly because he stayed in college a couple of extra years. That means he’s never played this event, and we really only have glimpses of his talent to go off. Still, the glimpses have been rather intoxicating, with his near-miss at the Phoenix Open three weeks ago extremely fresh in the mind. With a solid all-round game, I expect him to make the cut at the very least and perhaps have another chance to work himself into the mix on the weekend.

 

Love It- Chris Kirk $16,880

Now for a veteran presence, 36 year old Kirk has played this event 9 times, with 5 top 20 finishes. He’s rediscovered some of his talent the last two seasons after battling alcoholism in the years prior. Like Theegala and Scheffler, he has a well rounded game which can compete on any track. His last two starts have been 7th and 14th in tough events, and I’m going to ride the intersection of form and course history to hopefully another solid finish. Perhaps he doesn’t have a winning ceiling in this field, but I think top 10 is very attainable.

 

Love It- Kevin Kisner $14,960

And now for one more veteran pick, with 38 year-old Kisner having played nicely a couple of times already this year and having contended at this event in the past. He has a mixed record in 7 starts here, but the course isn’t long enough to overwhelm the short-hitter, and his immense short game skills can come into play. At this price a top 20 would probably be enough to make a difference in your lineup, so the fact the he could feasibly contend for a win is a big bonus.

 

Hate It- Russell Henley $18,940

It would be fair to say that Henley is playing some of the best golf of his life right now, but I see this as a let-down spot for him. The first reason is that he hasn’t done much at this event in 5 starts, which came from 2013-17 when he was winning reasonably often. 3 missed cuts and two finishes in the 40s. In the 5 years since he’s played, his game dropped off for a while before coming back strong in 2021-22. The second area of concern is that in his last two starts, he’s relied heavily on his short game and struggled in his strength area of approach play, as well as off the tee. The combination of mini form slump and not a great course history is enough for me to avoid Henley in this one.

 

Suggested Draftstars Line-up

 

Honda Classic Results

Berger- 4, an almost flawless week came unravelled over his last 19 holes, but still a nice result. 85 points.

Mitchell- T9, his purple patch continued, playing well over the weekend to move up the board as others struggled.  77.5 points.

Hughes- T48, never really got it going, with a poor round on Sunday to top it off. 50.5 points.

Vegas- T42, like Hughes he wasn’t at his best, unable to move forward on the weekend. 53.5 points.

Villegas- MC, really bad week from the verteran, with bogey or worn on almost half his holes. Yuck. 5.5 points.

Niemann- MC, he showed his class in glimpses, but missed the cut by a shot making it a strong fade choice. 28 points.

 

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