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The 2023 State of Origin series reaches a conclusion, and the only question left to answer is whether the Maroons can claim a clean sweep over the Blues. After a dominant display in Game 2, Queensland came away 32-6 winners, claiming their 3rd series win over the past 4 years. With Blues Head Coach Brad Fittler on the chopping block, can his stars give him a chance to hang on to the job next season. Only time will tell.

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Team News

The Blues have once again made plenty of changes, after a massive loss in Game 2. Tom Trbojevic has been ruled out, after suffering an early injury in Game 2, replaced by Knights’ debutant Bradman Best. Jarome Luai has been dropped, replaced by Cody Walker at 6. Fittler has opted for an entirely new forward pack, with starting front rowers Payne Haas (ankle) and Junior Paulo (dropped), making way for Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Jake Trbojevic. Hooker Reece Robson drops to the bench for Damien Cook, whilst edge back rowers Tyson Frizell and Hudson Young have been dropped, with Liam Martin promoted to start, and Keaon Koloamatangi named to debut. Isaiah Yeo drops to the bench, in favour of Rabbitoh Cam Murray, whilst Jacob Saifiti and Clinton Gutherson join the bench, with Stefano Utoikamanu left out.

Queensland has been forced into a few changes, with Broncos’ fullback Reece Walsh (suspension) missing out. Walsh is replaced by AJ Brimson, who will play his 4th Origin. Prop Tom Flegler (foot) is out, replaced on the bench by Raider’s firebrand Corey Horsburgh. No other changes to the 17 who smashed the Blues 3 weeks ago at Suncorp.

Betting Markets

Queensland ($1.67) vs New South Wales ($2.25)

Points total – 41.5 points

Overview

Dead rubbers are never much fun to bet, as you just cannot gage the motivation levels of either team. However, Queensland will have to snap a 13-year drought of this series being won 3-0, so you’ve got to give the Blues a chance based on these statistics. They will surely be the more desperate team; however, I am not a fan of the turnover the Blues have decided on throughout the series. The Maroons should win comfortably; however, I wouldn’t be betting heavily into this market.

Love It – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow - $13,400

What a Superstar of the game the Hammer is turning into. Despite being just 21 years of age, he has shown he is already one of the biggest names in the game, and one that loves the Origin arena. Game 3 will see the Hammer play his 4th Origin game, and with 4 tries already to his name, he knows how to get across the stripe. He’s marking up against rookie Blue Bradman Best, and I can’t see any reason not to back him to score another try in Game 3.

Love It – Daly Cherry-Evans - $20,970

DCE has a great chance at winning player of the series, and he has steered the Maroons around the paddock beautifully this series. The Manly half has managed solid scores of 51.7 (G1) and 62.2 (G2), without too much fanfare or attacking statistics. I can’t see any reason why Cherry-Evans doesn’t pump out at a minimum 50 points in game 3, with the upside to get you upwards of 65. In a matchup where things could get a little out of hand, I like DCE to go large here in Game 3.

Love It – Reuben Cotter - $15,350

I love Cam Murray for around the same price, but there is a slight concern on his minutes and role, so I’ll go with the mulleted maniac from the Cowboys. Cotter has played 80 minutes in both matches so far, and just gets the job done. Isn’t overly expensive, given his consistency, and you can just about guarantee he will pump out big minutes, and a big score. Not huge upside, unless he manages to jag a try, but a tremendous floor that will set you up nicely.

Hate It – James Tedesco - $17,090

This could (and should) be Tedesco’s final game for the Blues. There’s no doubt he’s one of the best to ever pull on a sky-blue jersey, but the time has come for the champion Blue to concentrate on his club footy. Tedesco is still the most expensive OB in Origin, at $2,500 more expensive than Val Holmes, yet he is only averaging 33.6 this series, after a disappointing 26.5 in game 2. Is still trying hard, but without the attacking statistics he has been known for in years gone by, he just can’t be considered at this price.

Hate It – Jake Trbojevic - $15,060

Jake is another one who has been a great for the Blues over the past 7 years and gets his chance back in the squad for game 3. I’m a little concerned over the minutes Jake will play, with talk Jacob Saifiti may get the start, and further murmurs that Spencer Leniu may come onto the bench. With potentially 3 middles on the bench, the minutes for Trbojevic may be limited, and as such he won’t be able to bank those big base stats he is known for in the middle. I much prefer Cotter and Murray at the same price.

Who Knows – Isaiah Yeo - $14,470

The Panthers Captain and Blues Vice Captain has been demoted to the bench for game 3, in a move many have called for in order to get Cam Murray into the starting side. I’m not entirely sure I see Yeo as a bench player, despite the fact he is able to play lock and second row, and at a pinch could fill in at centre. Yeo has averaged 59.5 points per game in this series, which is the most of any player, however he moves to the bench hurts his output, given he has played 80 minutes in the opening two games. If he’s a late starter, he’s a bargain, however off the bench I can’t play him.

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