Wow, I’m so glad it’s Origin week. I don’t tune into any camp news until the weekend’s NRL games are done, but now the anticipating is building. Game One is kicking off on Wednesday at 8:10pm. We start in Sydney at Accor Stadium, where New South Wales will start as solid favourites over Queensland after winning back the shield in 2021. The 2020 blip is a real shame, but while this team is made up of majority Penrith players they will be tough to beat. There are two ticket qualifier contests for the AFL Live Final also.

Draftstars has a massive $40,000 contest with $3915 to first place. There are also several other contests including the Mini, Micro, and the High Roller.
 


 

Team News

New South Wales line up close to the last couple of years team, with one high profile change being the dropping of Josh Addo-Carr in favour of Daniel Tupou and Brian To’o. The centres was also a much discussed selection topic (Latrell and Turbo out), with Jack Wighton returning to the role after playing there in 2020, and Kotoni Staggs getting an Origin debut on the right side. The spine is unchanged from the last two years, with Tedesco, Cleary and Cook all locked in and Luai thriving playing next to Cleary at the next level. Payne Haas overcame some recent controversy and a banged up shoulder to be named at prop, and Stephen Crichton will get a debut on the bench after narrowly missing the centre role. He’ll likely get extremely limited minutes. Ryan Matterson and Reagan Campbell-Gillard join Liam Martin as the bench forwards, with a nod to some good form for both them and their team (the Eels).

Queensland stuck with Kalyn Ponga at fullback despite some indifferent club form, and paired him with young gun wingers Xavier Coates and Selwyn Cobbo. The rest of the backline chooses itself, with Holmes, Gagai, Munster and Cherry-Evans all settled in their roles. I was surprised to see Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has started in all 6 games over the last two series, what a young stud. Ben Hunt at hooker with Harry Grant on the bench is the most eyebrow raising of the forward pack choices. Reuben Cotter gets a debut at lock after his irresistible form, and Lindsay Collins is back on the big stage after missing the 2021 series with an ACL injury. He’ll be strong off the bench, with Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai both likely to see limited minutes at the tail end of the rotation.


Odds

New South Wales $1.60 v Queensland $2.35


Overview

Origin fantasy is a bit of an enigma. The scores are pretty similar to the NRL, but it can be hard working out how players in different roles will fare or which forwards will play less minutes than they do at club level. In general we can expect most players to score a little worse than they do in NRL games as they have to share the workload with other star players. The absolute best players (Tedesco, Cleary) still dominate though. The pricing is the other big variable, with a lot of players FAR cheaper than they are at NRL level, with incredible values everywhere you look. I’ll highlight a few more players in this article than usual to account for this.

 

Outside Backs

The pricing is basically Tedesco at 20K, and then everybody else at half the price. All of To’o, Gagai, Ponga, Holmes and Tupou are proven scorers at this level (in roughly that order), and are way too cheap. Mixing one or two of those guys with Tedesco will be a popular play. Kotoni Staggs could thrive at this level, but it’s an unknown right now, so he feels a bit riskier. Jack Wighton only averaged 15 at centre in 2020, so is the clear fade at his elevated price. Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates are both wildcards, who I expect to be a bit below NRL scoring but have the talent to do anything. Coates is $3000 cheaper but Cobbo feels like the player with the much bigger ceiling if you want to take a wild shot at either of them.
 

Hookers & Halves

Nathan Cleary is too cheap. Even accounting for a bit less influence than at NRL level, he projects for around 70 points and should be 25K. In comparison Cook, Munster, and Cherry-Evans are all more appropriately priced for their reduced impact in Origin. Ben Hunt looks to be a silly price, with 18K making him the clear fade. The key reason is that I expect Harry Grant to get more minutes than him off the bench, and to do more with those minutes. That makes Grant a really strong value play, and I think it’s worth finding the extra salary to play him over Jarome Luai who is better in real life than fantasy.

 

Forwards

I’m grouping Murray, Haas, Yeo and Cotter as the top scoring forwards. The first 3 all have an Origin history that projects them for around 50 points. Cotter is more of a wildcard but I think he can expect about the same 60-70 minute role as Yeo will play. The next tier of Papalii, Matterson, and Fa’asuamaleaui are all capable of being the top scoring forward on the slate, but project a little worse in their reduced roles from clubland. Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell are both possible exceptions as they could retain their 70+ minute roles and similar scoring to NRL level. The only threat to that is Jeremiah Nanai on the bench, who could see a very short stint in place of one of the second-rowers late in the game. I think Lindsay Collins gets the biggest role of cheaper bench forwards (not Matterson), so he’s my pick of the interchange group. Junior Paulo and Tariq Sims are both wildcards who aren’t scoring well at NRL level and don’t project great, but still have the role to put up a big score on their night.


Draftstars Suggested Team

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