daily fantasy sports articles

Round 9 begins at 7:50pm with the South Sydney Rabbitohs playing host to the Brisbane Broncos at Accor Stadium. Both teams are 4-4, and already played this season when the Broncos pulled off a shock victory in round 1. On that night that didn’t even have star halfback Adam Reynolds, who gets to take on his old team for the first time. That’s enough for me to think that this could turn into a game very much worth watching.

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Team News

The Rabbitohs only two changes are on the bench, with young forwards Davvy Moale and Shaquai Mitchell being replaced by the more experiences Liam Knight and Hame Sele. Jaxson Paulo is again on the bench as a utility after being unused last week, which means Jai Arrow is likely to again see big minutes as a true second rower. Lachlan Ilias continues to show signs that he’s getting more comfortable controlling the team, with Cody Walker the beneficiary with more freedom to do his thing.

The Broncos changes are both big ones, with gun forwards Payne Haas and Kurt Capewell both out. The Return of Pat Carrigan at prop eases the impact a little, while exciting youngster TC Robati will start in the second row. Other than Selwyn Cobbo, the whole backline has been benefiting from a better standard of play this season, and the loss of their two best forwards could dampen that slightly.

Odds

Rabbitohs $1.25 v Broncos $4.00

Overview

The odds area little surprising for this one, even accounting for it being in Sydney. The Broncos did already eat them this season, and that was without their best player. This weeks losses are a factor, but regardless they’ve had a solid season so far including beating the Sharks last week. Meanwhile the Rabbitohs have struggled somewhat and the scoreline flattered them against a 12 man Manly team missing their best player last week. I’d have the Broncos in the $2.50-3.00 range. To me that means a few Broncos stacks is a good idea just in case they win again, and balanced lineups are more than okay.

Love It- Isaiah Tass $12,130

The young Rabbitohs centre played his first full game last week, and duly racked up 55 points with a well rounded stat sheet. He also posted 31 points in 17 minute stint off the bench two weeks earlier. If you extrapolate this numbers to an 80 minute average, you get a whopping 70 points. Okay, obviously that is ridiculous, small sample sizes and he’s not going to score a try every week and all that stuff, but he looks pretty good. 8 tackle breaks in 97 minutes of rugby league is a promising sign for his fantasy scoring, even if the attacking stats dry up. Some of the other centres in this games average in the 40-45 region, and even if that feels a little high as a projection, I think he’s still a bit too cheap. One caution is the Kotoni Staggs matchup, after he shut down Talakai last week.

Love It- Teui Robati $10,200

There’s a chance that this doesn’t pan out if Keenan Palasia ends up starting in the back row instead of Robati. The more likely outcome is that Robati starts and plays around 65 minutes. To broaden the sample size I looked at the 7 games where he has played over 40 minutes, 3 of them from the bench. In an average of 61 minutes he’s racked up 44 fantasy points, without an excessive amount of attacking stats. His workmate is good, and he’s pretty explosive. It’s close to a free square type of play, with 50+ or even 60+ point upside.

Love It- Adam Reynolds $21,160

Nothing stands out as clear value in the HH position, but Reynolds appeals after settling in very nicely at the Broncos. In a fantasy sense he’s in a real purple patch, which is partly explained by an increase in kick metres. Last season at the Rabbitohs he averaged 300m, and so far this year it has been 500m, which is a very handy 10 points extra. Everything else looks similar, so if it continues Reynolds could maintain his 60+ average for the season. That makes him a fairly dependable play even t the elevated price tag, and surely playing against his former team can’t hurt. He is old and somewhat injury prone, so there are no guarantees!

Hate It- Rhys Kennedy $11,670

There’s nothing obvious not his slate, so I’m targeting Kennedy who holds some appeal as a cheap bench forward who has posted a 35+ score 3 weeks in a row. If he was getting his usual 30+ minutes it might be sustainable, but with 20 minutes the last two weeks he has gotten to his scores on the back of a try and some other unusual attacking stats. Despite a couple of forwards being out I still can’t find more than about 25 minutes for him in this team, which suggest his chances of a 40+ score are very low.

Who Knows- Billy Walters / Corey Paix  $11140 / $9730

These two have shared the hooking role the last two weeks, with a 50/30 minutes split both times. The problem is that despite Walters being the starter on both occasions, they’ve both had a go at getting the 50 minutes. I’m not sure if there are any injury factors, but it’s hard to know what the plan is going forward. I’d guess that Walters get the bigger share as the starter most weeks, in which case his 45 points last week is very encouraging at this price. Paix scored 48 the week before (with a try), so both are worth consideration despite the uncertainty over their role. Presumably Paix will be virtually unowned.