The final game of round 17 pits the Brisbane Broncos against the St George Illawarra Dragons at Suncorp Stadium. With both sides currently inside the top 8, the result could have serious connotations as we progress towards the home stretch of the regular season. The Broncos were looking ultra-impressive just a few short weeks ago, however losing two straight must be concerning for Head Coach Kevin Walters. The Dragons, meanwhile, have won two in a row and 7 of their past 10 matches to sit in 8th, and are in with a fantastic opportunity to make an unlikely run to the Finals this year.

Draftstars have a $10,000 contest for this one, plus several other contests including the $2 Mini and 50c Micro to jump into.

Team News

The Broncos have been forced into several changes, with Origin and injury wreaking havoc on their squad. Te Maire Martin is out, with Tesi Niu replacing him at fullback. Selwyn Cobbo is out due to Origin, with Jordan Pereira starting on the wing. Both starting props from last week (Haas and Jensen) are out through injury, with Keenan Palasia and Ryan James starting in their places. Zac Hosking makes his NRL debut on the edge, in place of Origin star Kurt Capewell. Pat Carrigan is also on Origin duty, with Kobe Hetherington promoted to start at lock. Four fresh faces on the bench, with Cory Paix, Rhys Kennedy, Xavier Willison and Tyson Gamble named on the bench.

For the Dragons, the big loss is Ben Hunt to Origin, replaced by Jayden Sullivan at halfback. No other changes for the Dragons.

Betting Odds

Broncos $1.71 vs Dragons $2.15 - Bet now at Ladbrokes!


Overview

Despite the Broncos being favourites heading into this game with the bookies, I really like the chances of the Dragons. They have been playing solid footy of late, and with the number of changes to the Broncos squad, the Red V surely have a good shot at a win. We haven’t seen the ‘Baby Broncos’ for some time, and it’ll be interesting to see how they go against a Dragons side missing just one player from their best squad.

The Dragons have won the previous 5 matchups with the Broncos; however, this is obviously a new and improved Broncos side. I don’t see a lot of points being scored in this game, so good kicking games from your half/halves and plenty of work by your forwards is the order of the day in this game.

 

Love It – Adam Reynolds - $23,530

Reynolds is awfully expensive, however unless you’re going to trust one of the Dragons’ halves to score a try or set up several, Reynolds is the clear target for your halves position this week. Reynolds is coming off his lowest score this season last week (49.5), however the game against the Cowboys was end to end football, which I don’t see being the case this weekend. I see this game being played between the 20s and for field position to be king. Watch for the kicking game of Reynolds to guide the Broncos all night long.

 

Love It – Zac Hosking - $9,900

Making his debut for the Broncos, Hosking has been named to start on the edge and should play big minutes in this game. At this price point, you must take the gamble in assuming Kevvie Walters will give the kid plenty of action in this game. Running off Ezra Mam won’t be a terrible thing either, with the livewire five eighth garnering plenty of attention from edge defenders, so don’t be surprised to see Hosking threatening the try line.

 

Love It – Kotoni Staggs - $13,350

A rocks and diamonds type player, Staggs will be attacking the left edge of the Dragons, which has conceded a whopping 45% of all tries the Dragons have conceded this season. Coming up against Moses Suli, who is known for the odd brain snap defensively, Staggs could be primed for a big game this week in a contest that could come down to a big play or two by star players for either side.

 

Hate It – Tyson Gamble - $15,650

Gamble has been named on the bench, however with a bench hooker in Paix also named on the bench, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gamble miss out. He’s priced as an 80-minute version of himself, and he may get limited minutes, if he indeed plays at all. Can’t be picked at the price and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he’s a late withdrawal.

 

Hate It – Tesi Niu - $17,830

After 3 months out, Niu is way overpriced for mine, in a game that probably won’t produce many points for either team. Niu butters his bread with his ball playing skills, setting up tries and line breaks. With these statistics at a premium is this game, in my opinion anyway, Niu will struggle to score the big points we want from someone costing us $18k.

 

Who Knows – Jayden Sullivan - $12,390

Sullivan has been given the keys to the car, being named to start at halfback in place of Ben Hunt. There are huge wraps on this kid, but a trip north to play at Suncorp Stadium in your first career start could be a daunting prospect for the young man. Is capable of plenty but could very much go into his shell for 80 minutes and look overawed.


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