We’ve got a huge two-game slate to look forward to on Saturday, which is book-ended by the two bitter rivalries on Friday night (Panther vs Eels) and Sunday afternoon (Roosters vs Rabbitohs).

First up, the Melbourne Storm (5) will host the Canberra Raiders (8) in the first Elimination Final of the weekend. The Storm are in an unfamiliar position, with this year being the first since 2014 that they haven’t made the top 4. They come up against a team with a solid record at AAMI Park in the Raiders, who have won 8 of their past 10 matches this season.

Then, to cap of the Saturday slate of games, the second Qualifying Final sees the Cronulla Sharks (2) hosting the North Queensland Cowboys (3), with the winner being only one win away from a Grand Final. With neither side making the top 8 last year, season 2022 has been a huge improvement for both. Who has it in them this week to rise to the challenge?

Draftstars has a $5,000 Saturday contest with $679 to first place. There are also several other contests including the Mini, Micro, and the High Roller, as well as single game contests. 


 

Team News

The Storm have only one change this week, and it’s a big one, with halfback Jahrome Hughes named to return, pushing Cooper Johns to reserves.

The Raiders have made two changes, welcoming back Jack Wighton and Elliott Wighthead, who were both rested last week. Corey Haraira-Naera drops to the bench, with Matt Frawley and Albert Hopoate dropping out of the 17-man squad.

The Sharks are sweating on the fitness of Siosifa Talakai. If he misses out, I’d expect Matt Ikuvalu to come into the starting 13. Connor Tracey returns, pushing Ikuvalu to the reserves. The Sharks also get back Toby Rudolf and Dale Finucane, with Braden Hamlin-Uele and Cam McInnes reverting to the bench. Luke Metcalf drops off the bench.

Finally, the Cowboys make one change, with Coen Hess back from suspension, replacing Jamayne Taunoa-Brown on the bench.


Betting Odds

Storm $1.35 vs Raiders $3.25

Sharks $1.71 vs Cowboys $2.15

Bet now at Ladbrokes!


Overview

Despite the narrative surrounding the Raiders being in great form heading into the finals, and having a great record at AAMI Park, this type of match has me confident in a big Storm victory. They are a team built for this time of the season, and despite the team’s general arc pointing downhill, I still believe they are far too good for a Raiders side that is lucky to be in the finals. Storm by over a converted try.

In game two, I lean towards the Sharks having too much at home against the Cowboys. These sides are very evenly matched, but the home field advantage will be real. The weather has been wet and cold, with the Cowboys struggling this year travelling to Sydney. In a statistic that I had to double check, the Cowboys only travelled to Sydney FIVE times in 2022, coming away with 2 wins (Sea Eagles, Dragons) and 3 losses (Panthers, Roosters, Rabbitohs). Sharks in a low scoring grind.

 

Love It – Nick Meaney - $12,370

Meaney has been the Mr Fix It for the Storm this year, however he has finally been given the keys to the same car for the past few weeks, and he is taking advantage. Meaney has looked rock solid at fullback the past few weeks, and despite losses in the past fortnight for the Storm he has still managed scores of 41 and 54. Not a massive upside guy, however with points at a premium in this slate he should get you a solid score at a decent price.

 

Love It – Cam Munster - $22,000

With Nicho Hynes taking his foot off the gas with two straight scores under 60, has his bubble burst? I don’t think so, and believe he is also a terrific purchase this week, however I’m running with Munster and saving $3,200. This sudden death clash will see the absolute best out of Munster, and in games this big the cream always rises to the top. With Hughes still likely suffering the lingering side effects of a strained calf, look for Munster to take control of the Storm in attack and take this game over.

 

Love It – Braden Hamlin-Uele - $9,650

I am concerned with the return of Toby Rudolf, with BHUs minutes likely to suffer, however his level has been so good over the past few weeks that Fitzgibbon will surely give the big fella an increased percentage of the available minutes in the middle. This game is going to be played through the middle, and if Hamlin-Uele can get 40+ minutes, you can expect 40+ points. At close to bottom dollar, he’s worth the risk to save some cash and get that big name elsewhere, with a relatively poor FWD list in this slate.

 

Hate It – Scott Drinkwater - $17,460

I’ve had Drinkwater in this list before, and he made me look like an idiot. I’m going back to the well, with the Cowboys fullback a full $2,170 more expensive than the 2nd most expensive OB. Whilst he does have upside, in a game I’m predicting to be forward dominated and a battle of field position, I believe it’s more likely Drinkwater doesn’t get the opportunities inside the opponent’s 20 that he would want, and is way overpriced as a result.

 

Hate It – Hudson Young - $19,710

For anyone who regularly reads these articles, you’ll probably be running to the website to pick Young this week. I've faded him on several occasions this year, and he always seems to score 1 or more tries when I do. Against a Storm side that will be frugal defensively, Young is overpriced again unless you believe he will score a try. Scored 38 in his last start against the Storm, in a sign of what you can expect from him without a try.

 

Who Knows – Jahrome Hughes - $17,600

Hughes is a very consistent fantasy halfback, however with the calf concerns, it’s unknown what sort of usage Hughes will get in this game. Will Munster take over the primary kicking duties? Will the Storm go left more to keep Hughes fresh for what will no doubt be plenty of traffic coming his way in defence? For me there is more questions than answers and anyone selecting Hughes should be aware of the big unknown factors surrounding his selection.


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