So after the events in Brisbane on Saturday, it is only fitting to give this preview a little touch up. 

 

Round 20 Super Saturday Sunday looks like a strong slate of games on paper, with all 6 teams sitting in the top 11 on the ladder. We start withthe 11th placed Knights playing the 9th placed Raiders at Suncorp Stadium, with both teams desperate to keep their top 8 chances alive. Next the 8th placed Dragons taking on the 3rd placed Rabbitohs.  Finally it’s a top of the table clash, with the Storm (1st) and the Panthers (2nd) also playing at Suncorp. The Queensland weather should continue to shine on the NRL.

 

Draftstars has a $3,000 contest with $411 to first place. The single game contests are set at $6,000, $8,000 & $8,000.

 

 

Team News

 

The Dragons continue to churn through the changes as players take turns serving their suspensions for the mass COVID breach. This week it’s Jack De Belin, Josh McGuire, Blake Lawrie and Jack Bird who have to sit out. Cody Ramsey, Jordan Pereira and Matt Dufty are also out (named in reserves). The massive list of ins includes Tyrell Sloan (FLB), Corey Norman (CTR), Talatau Amone (CTR), Poasa Faamausili (FRF), Billy Burns (2RF), as well as Jaidyn Hunt, Jackson Ford and Kaide Ellis on the bench. Tyrell Fuimaono moves up from the bench to the second-row.

 

The Rabbitohs only has one change with Cameron Murray being replaced and Liam Knight (bench), with Jai Arrow moving into the starting team at lock. Blake Taaffe replaces Braidon Burns as the utility.

 

The Storm get a post Origin boost with Cameron Munster, Dale Finucane and Felise Kaufusi back into the team. The result is that Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Cooper Johns and Trent Loiero are forced out. Ryan Papenhuyzen is still on the bench, and Harry Grant lurking in the reserves as two gigantic reshuffle risks. The Panthers lose Tyrone May, Brian To’o, James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo. Robert Jennings (wing), Matt Eisenhuth (lock), Izack Tago (bench) and J’maine Hopgood (bench) come in. Matt Burton moves to the halves, and Liam Martin comes into the starting team at prop.

 

Odds

 

Dragons $9.00 v Rabbitohs $1.07

Knights $2.25 v Raiders $1.65

Storm $1.15 v Panthers $5.50

 

Overview

 

Earlier in the season this might have looked like three pretty blockbuster games. Unfortunately, the Dragons Covid woes and the Panthers injury carnage makes two of these games much more lopsided. The Rabbitohs in particular will have every chance to dominate, so I like their backline players in particular. The Knights are my pick for team most likely to cause an upset.

 

Love It - Billy Burns $7,000

 

Burns suffers from being a versatile young player, effectively being used as a utility in most games and often filling in for injured backline players. He’s shown some impressive signs in the few chances he has received to play as a forward, with three starting appearances in the second-row this season. In those games he’s averaged 63 minutes for 32 points, which isn’t great, but I think there is plenty of upside. With the Dragons missing several big forwards, the opportunity for closer to 80 minutes and 40 points exists, without even considering that he could grab some attacking stats that have been absent in the small sample so far. With CTR/2RF eligibility, Burns looks like an excellent chance to save some salary and introduce some flexibility to your lineup.

 

Love It - Matt Eisenhuth $9,620

 

The Huth has seen a major role reduction by moving to the Panthers this year, now playing exclusively as a bench forward filling holes in the middle of the field. His average minutes have almost halved from last year, when he was playing 60+. The only starting chance he’s had this year came in round 13, when he managed 52 minutes for 38 points. That kind of number makes him a good cash play today, but I’m going to back him in for an even bigger role given the size of the Panthers injury crisis. With Yeo and Fisher-Harris absent from the middle of the field, there will be a big role to fill and the potential for 50+ points in tackles alone against the Storm.

 

Love It - Mitch Barnett $12,880

 

Barnett has a very clear split between is games at lock and in the second-row. When at lock he generally plays less than 50 minutes for about 45 points (or less). In the second-row he’s played 80 minutes every time this year (11 games) and averaged 55. I think the reason is that he doesn’t have to share time with Connor Watson when he’s playing on the edge. His price still demands a 60+ score, but he’s a much better chance with the 80 minutes, and it’s a grudge match against his former team, which I think the Knights have a reasonable chance of winning. He shouldn’t be one of the more popular 2RF picks, so I like it a lot.

 

Hate It - Corey Norman $13,920

 

This week it is Normans turn to get a taste of the negative positional switch that has plagued Matt Burton and others recently. He’s named to come back into the team at centre, where his chances of paying off this price tag are almost zero. He should be at least 10 points per game worse than when he plays in the halves. Given that he almost needs 70 points to be relevant, even a late switch back into the halves wouldn’t make me particularly interested in a tough matchup against the Rabbitohs.

 

Hate It - Hudson Young $13,090

 

Young is the opposite of Barnett, in that he’s moved from second-row to lock this week, and will play a different role with reduced minutes. It’s no certainty that he fails to score well in that role, but I think his chances of paying off a pretty big price tag definitely take a hit. He’d need well over 60 points, and in his two previous games at lock (in 2020) he got just over 40 minutes for an average of 44 points. He’s not an awful play, but I prefer the options below him.

 

Who Knows- Spencer Leniu $7,000

 

Leniu was someone who was winning people money at the start of the season, seeing around 30 minutes and scoring well with his wrecking ball style. As the season has gone one, his role has faded back to around 20 minutes per game, and his ceiling has gone missing. Last week he saw the most minutes off the bench since round 2 (28), and I can see that continuing with some of their best middle forwards out this week. The Storm matchup and reliance on tackle breaks to score well is a concern, but I do like the leverage of this play. At minimum price, he’s not likely to sink your lineup entirely.

 

Draftstars Suggested Team

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