The Origin series was decided just 4 days ago, but Round 16 feels like a chance to move on from that lopsided contest and get stuck into the final 10 rounds of the NRL season. There is still an Origin and bye week to navigate, but teams will know that now is the time to put the foot down or risk being left behind in their aspirations to finish near the top of the ladder, or to sneak into the top 8.

Our Thursday night game is a Titanic battle in the form of the Roosters “hosting” the Storm in Newcastle. Both teams have a few fatigued Origin players to nurse through, as well as some key players missing through injury or suspension. The Roosters in particular have been hit hard this season and need to win this game to stay in touch with the top 4. The Storm are on top of the table but will be desperate not to give away any ground to the rest of the top 4.

 

Draftstars has a $15,000 contest with $1,133 to first place. There are also several other contests including the Mini, Micro and the High Roller.

 

 

Team News

 

The Roosters get Sam Walker back after some shoulder issues, with Joey Manu moving back to centre and Joseph Suaalii out of the side. Sitili Tupouniua also returns from injury, pushing Fletcher Baker back to the bench. James Tedesco and Angus Crichton could be late withdrawals or get an in-game rest just 4 days after their big performances for NSW in Origin.

 

The Storm get back both Jesse and Kenny Bromwich from injury, meaning Tui Kamikamica goes back to the bench, and Tom Eisenhuth is out of the side. Harry Grant is still out, with Brandon Smith getting as much runs as he can handle at hooker, backed up by Aaron Booth. Christian Welch and Felise Kaufusi are the Origin players that are a chance to be rested entirely or through reduced minutes. Cam Munster shouldn’t be affected with the Storm needing him to regain his best form in such an important game.

 

UPDATE: NRL.com are reporting that Craig Bellamy might rest his Origin stars in Christian Welch and Felise Kaufusi. Keep an eye out on late mail + the final teams at one hour before kick off. 

 

Odds

 

Roosters $3.75 v Storm $1.28

Line – 12.5

Total – 48.5

 

Try location through 15 Rounds

 

  • Storm have scored 35 out of their 98 tries (36%) on their right edge (Jennings / Smith / Hughes). Although 34 out of 98 tries on the left edge as well (Addo-Carr / Olam / Munster).
  • Roosters have scored 34 out of their 72 tries (49%) on their right edge (Ikuvalu / Manu / Walker)

 

Overview

 

The Storm are significant favourites, but it’s hard to write the Roosters off completely with quality players throughout the starting 13. There could be some rain about, adding to the feeling that it is foolish to ignore the Roosters attacking threats just because they’re underdogs.

 

 

Love It - Dale Finucane $9,950

 

Finucane had a slow start to the season due to injury, but over the last two months he’s slowly worked his way back into some good form, culminating in a week spent with the NSW Origin side as a reserve forward. Having watched the game from the bench, he should be fresh and ready to rip in for the Storm to try to secure a spot in the team for game 3. His price has not caught up to his improved form, with a floor of around 40 and a ceiling of 60 as we saw in his last game. Finucane is a great cash play and not bad as a GPP anchor.

 

Love It - Matt Ikuvalu $8,980

 

The Roosters winger is a highly volatile boom/bust winger, who has gone 75+ twice in just 9 games this season, but also sub 20 in 3 of his last 4. It’s hard to say whether those low scores will lower his ownership significantly, but he certainly has the kind of ceiling needed to win a big GPP. Being available as both a CTR and WFB gives great flexibility, and the addition of Sam Walker to the team can’t hurt his chances of crossing the line off some long harbour bridge passes or funky kicks. I wouldn’t be touching a winger on the underdog team in cash line-ups. 

UPDATE - Ikuvalu is out of tonights match. Replaced by Joseph Suaali.

 

Love It - Cameron Munster $13,360

 

Munster hasn’t really gone near his true 80+ ceiling this year, but he’s been very solid in only going under 40 twice, and over 60 three times in his eleven games. With halves partner Jahrome Hughes at an astronomical price and both Roosters halves likely to have a hard time reaching their ceilings in such a tough game, I think Munster represents the best HLF play on the slate.

 

Hate It - Sitili Tupouniua $14,000

 

I’m a big fan for Sitili, but I cannot wrap my head around this price tag. With Boyd Cordner being out all season before eventually retiring, Sitili has taken his opportunities by putting up 6 55+ scores in 12 games. With that said, his best score is a 67, which is barely enough to make a difference at this price. Throw in the fact that he is returning from injury and against the Storm, and it’s easy to prefer the likes of Finucane, Bromwich and Taukeiaho at much cheaper prices.

 

Hate It - Jesse Bromwich $8,810

 

Bromwich is a good player and has been one of the best props in the NRL over the last decade, but he’s now 32 and his ceiling is well and truly gone. He is one of many 30+ year old props that I try to avoid in DFS. After missing a game with injury and somehow coming back with a slightly higher price than before, I have almost zero interest in using Bromwich on this slate.

 

Who Knows - Joseph Manu $11,250

 

Manu is the victim of playing some of his recent games in more lucrative positions including fullback and five-eighth. When he gets those opportunities, he tends to score more in the high 40s rather than his high 30s numbers at centre. With Tedesco and Walker back in the team, he shifts back to centre and looks awfully expensive, especially running against the defensive wall known as Justin Olam. With that said, Manu is a gun, and I don’t want to write him off completely when no one else at CTR is consistently setting the world on fire.

 

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