Round 11 of the NRL kicks off in Townsville, with the Cowboys hosting the Knights. The home team are 4-6 on the season, but 4-2 in their last six. The Knights are also 4-6, but have only won 2 of their last 8 games. Both teams have to win this to stay in touching distance of the top 8, so we can expect an intense affair. The weather should be perfect.

 

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Team News

 

The only change for the Cowboys is Coen Hess going out after an HIA last week, with Tom Gilbert promoted to start at prop and youngster Heilum Luki named for his debut off the bench. The Knights also have a single change with Hymel Hunt again hurting his hamstring, and Brayden Musgrove coming back from his own minor injury issues. However news late on Thursday night that Bradman Best was ruled out. Kurt Mann has moved from five-eight to the Fullback, Tex Hoy is OUT with Simi Sasagi playing in the Centres. Blake Green comes off the reserves to play at half-back. 

 

 

Odds

 

Cowboys $1.52 v Knights $2.55

Line – 6.0

Total – 47.5

 

Try Location Through 10 Rounds

 

  • Cowboys have scored 16 out of 32 tries (50%) on their left edge (Taulagi / Bowen / Drinkwater).
  • Knights have conceded 13 out of 32 tries (41%) on their left edge (Crossland / Mann / Musgrove).

Totally reshuffled left edge attack for the Knights with Mann in the centres. I wouldn't read too much into try location this week for the Knights. 

 

 

Overview

 

Which of these teams is the better team? If Ponga and/or Pearce were playing, I’d be picking the Knights no matter what. They’re not though, and the Cowboys continue their slow improvement as the season goes on. It might be the hardest game of the round to tip, so you can stack whichever way takes your fancy.

 

Love It - Jason Taumololo $14,300

 

It’s been a rough start to the season for Taumololo with drama with the new coach, two separate broken hands, and some pretty poor scoring by his lofty standards. We saw his barnstorming best against the Broncos two weeks ago, but he was held in check by the Roosters last week. The price has come down so much that he’s not even the most expensive 2RF on the slate. Playing at home as favourites seems like the perfect recipe for another big game, so get on board.

 

Love It - Scott Drinkwater $10,320

 

Drinkwater is definitely not consistent, and his ceiling isn’t all that impressive, but he has put together 3 50+ scores in his last 6 after finally getting some good continuity in the halves. Like Taumololo he can thrive on a good game environment and has the added bonus of being available in two positions, neither of which are looking particularly strong on this slate.

 

Love It - Tex Hoy $9,010

 

Another WFB/HLF option, Hoy is more of a gut-feel selection than a clear value play. Having the fullback role and goal kicking in Kalyn Ponga’s absence should fill us with confidence, but his record so far in 7 career games at fullback is a little underwhelming. His score of 43 in round 3 hints at his ability to score well, but he’ll need to show a bigger ceiling than that. My main interest is based on the fact that his box score looks pretty bad, which could lower his ownership significantly.

 

Hate It - Tom Gilbert $11,970

 

When I saw the team lists, I was excited to play Gilbert. The 20-year-old has big wraps on him, and impressed in 4 starting games as a 2RF in 2020. Unfortunately, Draftstars pre-empted his popularity and boosted his price to a level that makes it tough to play him over Daniel Saifiti or David Klemmer, not to mention some of the cheaper interchange forwards who can provide value at much cheaper prices. I could easily be wrong, and he could be the best FRF on the slate, but I really don’t like that price.

 

Hate It - Lachlan Fitzgibbon $12,260

 

Fitzgibbon has had two games back from his shoulder injury now, and like most of his teammates he was pretty underwhelming in both games. The addition of Tyson Frizell to the team this year has changed the dynamic a little, and I doubt that Fitzgibbon has anything like the ceiling he used to. As a result, Fitzgibbon probably doesn’t make my top 5 2RF plays on this slate.

 

Who Knows - Connor Watson $12,290

 

Watson has been good this season, but lately his minutes have been dwindling to an extent. Last week he got back to his 50+ minutes, but I suspect that had a bit to do with Hymel Hunts injury. He can still hit value at this price if he gets a full whack of minutes off the bench, but I fear that Lachlan Fitzgibbons return means that closer to 40 than 50+ is his designated role.

 

Draftstars Suggested Team

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