Domontas Sabonis

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Cheat Sheet

GAME BREAKDOWN

Game Breakdown - Pace

Another day… another 4 games yet to have totals set as we await injury news. As always I breakdown the major lineup news that may impact the slate below.

The top game total for those listed is Milwaulkee at San Antonio at 229.5 points. This game should be uptempo with the Bucks playing at the fastest pace in the league this season, while the Spurs are also running more, currently ranked 12th. Uncharatiscially the Spurs are also one of the worst defensive teams rated 20th in defensive efficiency. The major concern with this matchup will be the blowout factors, the game is in San Antonio, which means the line is only 7 points at this stage, however there is a significant gap between the two sides and the Bucks have been blowing away teams regularly this year.

The only other game with a total over 220 points surprisingly involves the Utah Jazz. They take on the New Orleans Pelicans who play at the leagues 7th fastest pace. This puts the Jazz in a significant pace up matchup and are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency. That said, the defense has improved drastically over the last 10 games where their rank has risen to 9th, which relates directly to the return of Derrick Favors from injury. 

Game Breakdown - Totals

Denver are in the pace up spot of the day on this slate against the Atlanta Hawks who have played at the 8th fastest pace in the league this year, and have been the fastest team over the past 10 games. The Hawks are also ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency and have conceded the second most fantasy points in the league, which means Denver are in an absolute smash spot on this slate. As usual with these types of matchups, blowout will be the biggest risk with the Nuggets currently favoured by 7 points.

Boston are the other obvious team to target as they face everybody's favourite DFS target in the Washington Wizards. As we note each slate the Wizards concede the most fantasy points in the league and are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season. This is another game that brings serious blow out risk, however, with the Celtics 9 point favourites.

I personally will be looking to dive into the Orlando Magic on this slate as they face the Brooklyn Nets. This game is expected to be a big closer with a 5.5 point line and the Magic will be in a pace up spot with the Nets playing at the 10th fastest pace this season.

INJURY NEWS

John Collins is questionable for the game against Denver. Last game without Collins the Hawks started Bruno Fernando (21 minutes and 19 fantasy points) and Damion Jones (10 minutes and 11 fantasy points), however it has been Alex Len who has been getting the bulk of the run at the big position. Over the past 4 games Len has averaged 23 minutes per game and returned 29 fantasy points. Without Collins in the most recent matchup he saw 27 minutes for 36 fantasy points. Trae Young has also seen a 6 fantasy point per game boost in this season games without Collins in the lineups.

Kemba Walker has been ruled out of the game against Washington and Enes Kanter is questionable. Without Walker this year it has been Marcus Smart who has seen the biggest boost, coming into the starting lineup and playing an additional 4 minutes per game has resulted in +10 fantasy points. So far in a small sample size Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward and Jason Tatum are yet to see usage increases.

Player Out - Kemba

Draymond Green and D'Angelo Russell are both out for the game against the Kings. Ky Bowman started last game at point guard but only managed 14 minutes as Burks came on and had a massive 45 fantasy point performance. Burks appears to be the safest play here, however Steve Kerr will roll with whatever is working, which brings any number of cheap Warriors into play.

Malcolm Brogdon remains out for the game against Charlotte. Aaron Holiday has benefited the most from Brogdon being out this year as he has taken over the starting point guard duties resulting in +6% usage, an additional 8 minutes of playing time and +15.3 fantasy points.

Player Out - Brodgon

Jrue Holiday is questionable for the game against the Jazz. Brandon Ingram has gone off in the games without Jrue this year posting +18 fantasy points per game. The other player to look to is Lonzo Ball who should receive more of the playmaking responsibilities and has posted increased playing time in the two games Holiday has missed this year resulting in +11 fantasy points per game.

Player Out - Jrue

Bradley Beal is questionable for the game against Boston. Jordan McRae has shown a massive ceiling with Beal out of the lineup this year posting 2 50+ point performances. He is averaging +20 fantasy points due to playing an additional 10 minutes per game and having a massive +10% bump to his usage rate. Ish Smith has also essentially playing Isaiah Thomas off the court recently, however I like Thomas in GPPs at low ownership as he received an 8% usage increase without Beal playing.

Player Out - Beal

VALUE PLAYS

As always more value will likely open up as we get closer to the slate and further lineup news breaks. Also be studious in looking a pricing differences between the three platforms are some players are value on different sites just due price. 

In addition to the possible value plays noted above:

Terrence Ross (DS $8,710, DK $4,700, MB $4,700) / Markell Fultz (DS $8,230, DK $5,000, MB $5,700) 

Ross has been on fire since Isaac went out posting back to back games of 34 and 28 fantasy points. He is obviously scoring reliant, which means GPPs are the way to go with him. On this slate all Magic players are playing significantly up in pace against Brooklyn, which means you can get exposure through a number of different avenues. Fultz is another who I like as a value play as the Nets have conceded the second most fantasy points in the league to point guards this season. Fultz flashed a ceiling game against Washington recently where he posted 37 fantasy points in just 22 minutes of playing time. He should be locked into around 30 minutes of action on this slate.

Marquese Chriss (DS $6,940, DK $4,800, MB $4,700) is priced nicely on Draftstars, particularly if he is to start for the injured Draymond Green. Chriss has averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute this season, so if he is line for 25+ minutes he is close to a must play. On DraftKings I prefer Eric Paschall at close to the minimum, however it really will come down to the news on who is expected to play more.

MID PRICE PLAYS

Buddy Hield (DS $13,810, DK $7,200, MB $6,700) has seen his shooting touch return recently posting 40+ fantasy point games in 3 of his last 4 matches. If Bogdan continues to miss games this should sure up significant minutes for Buddy. On this slate he matches up against the Golden State Warriors who have conceded the most fantasy points in the league this season the shooting guards.

Aaron Gordon (DS $12,390, DK $6,000, MB $6,300)... as I mentioned above I will be all over attacking Brooklyn with Magic players on this slate. Isaac leaves everyone extra usage and they will be in a pace up spot for game that should remain close. We all know Gordon brings 50 point upside, which at his price would be GPP winning return. In the two games without Isaac so far he has gone for over 30 fantasy points in each despite having tough matchups against defensive juggernauts Miami and Utah. On this slate things will be much easier against Brooklyn who give up closer to league average in fantasy points.

PREMIUM PLAY

Domantas Sabonis (DS $16,440, DK $8,600, MB $8,300) give me the safety of Sabonis who hasn't gone under 43 fantasy points in the last four games. Without Brogdon in the lineup he should be involved in initiating more offense, but the main appeal here is the matchup against the Hornetts who have been absolutely decimated inside this season conceding the most fantasy points in the league to the centre position (third most to power forwards). They give up the second most rebounds to centres, which should play right into Sabonis hands.

Dragon's Suggested Draftstars Team

Dragon Team

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