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After tonight there are only four games left in the BBL regular season, with the Stars the only team that can move into the top 5 at this point. The second-leg of tonight's double-header is between the Heat and the Scorchers at the neutral Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. Regardless of what happens, the Scorchers will finish the season in 1st place, with the Heat in the bottom 3 and missing the finals in another disappointing season. Still, it might not be as straightforward as that when figuring out who to favour in BBL fantasy this one, so lets take a closer look.

Draftstars has put up a $20,000 contest, with a top prize of at least $2,184. There are also other great contests including the High Roller, Mini, Micro and various others so why not jump into the action before the season is over?

Expected Heat Xl: Lynn, McSweeney, Pfeffer, Duckett, Heazlett, Peirson, Bazley, Swepson, Neser, Steketee, Kuhnemann (Bartlett, Bryant)

Expected Scorchers Xl: Patterson, Inglis, Marsh, Munro, Turner, Hardie, Tye, Hatzoglou, Morris, Moody, Behrendorff (Agar, Hobson, Sabburg)

The Scorchers are $1.59 favourites, and could get a big boost with Mitch Marsh, Josh Inglis and Colin Munro all back in the squad after international duty & covid. That strengthens the batting considerably, although Laurie Evans is out with a broken toe after a couple of nice innings. Ashton Agar is being assessed for a shoulder issue, so the bowling might be a little weakened again without Matt Kelly, Jhye Richardson and Agar (and Tymal Mills in a way). That leaves Andrew Tye and Jason Behrendorff as the guns, with support from inexperienced/inconsistent Peter Hatzoglou, Lance Morris, David Moody & Aaron Hardie. 

The Heat went down to the Stars last night, and sadly Fakhar Zaman didn’t get to play after the Pakistan Cricket Board asked him to come home early to prepare for the PSL. With Max Bryant out of favour, that leaves the batting looking rather thin with Nathan McSweeney and Lachie Pfeffer inexperienced, Chris Lynn and Jimmy Peirson struggling for runs, and Ben Duckett and Sam Heazlett under pressure to continue propping up the innings in the middle order. The bowling is supposedly strengthened by the inclusions of Mark Steketee, Michael Neser and Mitch Swepson, but none of them are T20 specialists and it would be a mistake to leave Xavier Bartlett out of the lineup again with his bag full of talent.

The Heat's weak batting against the Scorchers compromised bowling unit is an interesting matchup, but I feel the Scorchers are likely to come out on top. Having said that, it’s probably closer than the odds suggest if the Heat can get Mitch Marsh out cheaply.

Looking for Draftstars scores from previous editions from the BBL? Our Free Players Logs + Ground Fantasy breakdowns are now available in our BBL11 Data Tools

Love It - Chris Lynn ($17,800)

Chris Lynn scored 50+ points on 7 occasions last season, and has done it only once this season. That leads me to feel that he is very very due, and that the smallish, flattish Marvel environment could be a good setting for him to remind us how good he is. At 31 years old he should still have good cricket in him, so I’m going to resist giving up on him just yet. A bit of luck and a compromised Scorchers bowling attack could help him beat this slightly reduced price tag.

Love It - Matthew Kuhnemann ($11,600)

Like Lynn, Matt Kuhnemann is a very boom/bust proposition. In 16 BBL games, he’s scored 40+ six times, and 10 or less nine times, with a solitary score of 29 in the middle. Part of that is because his role can disappear at times, with limited overs or subbed out of the game altogether. There is the risk of that happening again, but I think we’re getting a talented cricketer at a big discount for his regular ceiling. If things break his way in terms of getting a full spell and jagging a wicker or two, it will be happy days.

Don’t Love It - Lance Morris ($9,500)

Another talented young cricketer, Lance Morris has looked a little more developed this season, but his output is still not great. In 10 BBL matches, the only time he’s exceeded 20 points was in his first game of this season. It could happen again at any time, but I’d prefer to take the 80+% chance that he fails against possible cheap chalk. 

Don’t Love It - Colin Munro ($19,200)

On the other side of the coin, Colin Munro has had a very good BBL season after being just solid last year. As a result he is very expensive, and now comes back in after three games missed due to Covid. It’s a tough ask to pay off this price tag even without those kinds of obstacles, and I’m going to back the Heat bowling lineup to stop it happening tonight.

Who Knows - Nathan McSweeney ($10,900)

The 22-year old has yet to achieve anything in 13 games of professional cricket across all formats, but there remains some optimism about his prospects as a former Aussie under 19 player and general talent. He’s got a solid role at the top of the order for now, and if that continues, it could be a good spot to bet on (supposed) talent and hope the breakout comes when others are looking elsewhere. 

Draftstars Suggested Lineup

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