This week is Game 2 of State Of Origin, and…..that’s it. A standalone weekend to allow the rest of the competition to freshen up and bring the grand arena into sharp focus. We all know what happened in game 1, with NSW delivering a record breaking spanking to the tune of a 50-6 scoreline in Townsville. This time we move to Brisbane and Suncorp Stadium, where Queensland will be banking on their historical home ground dominance to help them turn things around. They’ve thrown a few hail Mary’s at the selection table, and now we just have to sit back and see what kind of difference the new faces can make. The weeks wet weather should be cleared up by Sunday to allow another fast, bruising encounter.

 

Draftstars has a massive $40,000 contest with $3,915 to first place. There are also several other contests including the Mini, Micro, and the High Roller. Don’t miss out on another chance to qualify for the AFL Live Final via the qualifiers for this slate as well.

 

Team News

 

Queensland have understandably made some changes after a massive loss, with 4 new players coming in. Andrew McCullough replaces the injured Harry Grant at hooker, with Ben Hunt replacing AJ Brimson on the bench as his backup and general utility option. Josh Papalii comes in at prop, effectively pushing Jai Arrow to the second row and David Fifita back to the bench. Francis Molo  will make his debut, with Reece Walsh suffering a hamstring injury at training. This will push Val Holmes to fullback and Xavier Coates back to the wing. The action about the selection dramas over the past 24 hours has really put a spanner into Qld camp. Jaydn Su’a and Joe Ofahengaue go out of the team.

 

 

The Blues only have one change, with the injured Jake Trbojevic replaced by Junior Paulo being elevated from the bench, and Angus Crichton coming into the team.

 

Odds

 

Queensland $4.30 v New South Wales $1.22

Line – 15.5

Total – 46.5

 

 

Overview

 

The formula for a winning lineup in Game 1 was a NSW stack in the backs, with a mix of forwards including a 9% owned Payne Haas off the bench. In such a big contest it pays to be different, so look at some low owned bench forwards or some QLD backs to get away from the chalkier options. Can the Maroons realistically spring an upset? It’s never paid to write them off in the past, so it’s worth considering, especially after the heat from the Blues camp over the past 24 hours. 

 

Love It - Cam Munster $10,300

 

Nathan Cleary’s price continues to rise, and for good reason. I’m not saying that Cleary can’t or won’t be the best play at HLF in this one, I just think Munster has a pretty good chance of getting there instead. We saw Munster at 30% ownership in game 1, which should be around the same mark again. He’s historically excelled in the Origin arena, and there is some contrarian value in banking on the Maroons keeping this game more competitive on their home deck. A little too cheap, and due for a big game.

 

Love It - Brian To’o $9,120

 

The price has gone up on all NSW backs, apart from To’o and Addo-Carr. I’m not sure why after To’o put up a massive 64 points on debut, but it’s what we’ve got to work with. With game 1 stars Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic seeing the biggest price rises, I’m looking to To’o as my anchor and hoping the rest of the field gets carried away with chasing last games points. Again, any of the cheap QLD backs make for great contrarian plays.

 

Love It - Josh Papalii $12,980

 

It’s been an indifferent year for big Papa, getting dropped from the Raiders side and missing selection for the first Origin game. He seems to have found his mojo again in the last couple of weeks, and now comes in fresh and ready to try to turn his teams fortunes around. He’s not cheap, but he does have a big ceiling. Hopefully his ownership won’t get very high with several appealing FRFs at cheaper prices and most people spending their salary on Cleary and the NSW backs.

 

Hate It - Christian Welch $10,900

 

The other Maroons FRF is an interesting case, because his early HIA in game one leaves his score looking horrific next to his name. That and the ongoing risk of injury should have people avoiding Welch like the plague, but for now I’m inclined to follow the crowd on this one. With some other big forwards on the bench, I just don’t see many paths to a big ceiling game for Welch. If his ownership ends up under 10%, then I can see the merit in taking a few shots at him in such a big contest.

 

Hate It - Andrew McCullough $12,780

 

With Grant out, the HOK position looks pretty straight forward. McCullough is far less dynamic, and he’ll probably lose a decent bunch of minutes to Hunt. Damien Cook is by far the safest play, and Hunt is the one who could have some magical GPP winning upside if he gets on the field early due to an injury anywhere in the backline (or at HOK).

 

Who Knows - Reece Walsh $10,710

 

And now for the freakish 18 year old kid who’s played 6 NRL games, and is being thrown into Origin in the crucial position of fullback. He’s shown plenty in his limited games, with Kalyn Ponga like attacking flair and speed. What he’s also shown is a weakness in defence and also potentially under the high ball. His price is surprisingly high, so I’m inclined to say that we shouldn’t expect anything too impressive in such a tough environment. We’ve seen it happen before though with players that were born for the big stage. His ownership will be very interesting.

Poor Walsh, ruled out on Saturday after a hamstring injury in the final training run. 

 

Suggested Team

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