Ben Simmons

NBA DFS Preview – Wednesday 24 April 2019

NBA Tuesday (Wednesday AEST) brings a nice 4 game slate, which is solid for playoff basketball. The major DFS tournaments on offer include:

  • $6K NBA Wednesday at Draftstars
  • $1K NBA Wednesday Mini at Draftstars
  • $400K NBA Fadeaway at DraftKings ($100K to 1st)
  • $60K Four Point Play (20 Entry Max) at DraftKings
  • $25K NBA Two-Week Streak Special at DraftKings (Single Entry)

In case you are new to NBA DFS these articles break down the matchups and highlight the key plays to help you build winning lineups. For more insight into how to utilise our game breakdown data check out our NBA DFS Training Camp Series:

Part 1 – Betting Lines and Totals

Part 2 – Matchup Analysis – Pace and Defence vs Position 

Part 3 – Key Statistics in Daily Fantasy Basketball 

Part 4 – Trade Analysis – Breaking Down the Jimmy Butler trade 

Part 5 – DraftKings Sharpshooter Winning Lineup Recap 

Part 6 – Adjusting for Line-up News 

Have you seen our new NBA DFS Cheat Sheets? We have added even more information for you to see at a glance, including pace numbers, last 5 scores per player and a new Slate Overview section, which brings you projected pace, projected fantasy score totals and Vegas lines and totals for every team on the slate. The perfect accompaniment to our regular previews and a great starting place for the days we don't cover!

GAME BREAKDOWN

NBA lines and spreads

The stand out game on this slate is Brooklyn at Philadelphia, which brings a game total that is over 10 points above the next highest. It is worth nothing, however, that Philadelphia are heavy favourites in this matchup and could easily blow out Brooklyn if the Nets believe the season is over. 

Oklahoma City at Portland has a total that is 10.5 points lower, but the line is 3.5 indicating it is expected to remain close throughout the entire game.

NBA pace of play

The pace slows down overall in the playoffs making these indicators less critical than in the regular season. Portland and Brooklyn are the only two teams in pace up matchups, but it is the 76ers who have a positive implied point differential compared to their average at +3.8 points.

Injury/Lineup News

The only real injury news on this slate will be the status of Joel Embiid. He is currently listed as probable indicating he is likely to play, but in the case he doesn’t game three should be a good basis to assess the impact. It was Ben Simmons and Tobias Harriswho benefit posting 57 and 60 fantasy points respectively. While Greg Monroetook Embiid’s starting role and scored 28 fantasy points from 24 minutes of game time.

Draftstars

VALUE

Joe Harris (DS $7,940, DK $4,200) has been in absolutely terrible form through the first four games of this series. He has not made a three pointer since game 1. So why play him? His minutes are rock solid at around the 30 per game mark and Harris was the league's best shooter this season so a regression is overdue. He has flashed 40 point upside this year, if he can connect on 3-4 triples he will return value.

Al-Farouq Aminu (DS $8,590, DK $4,700) has seen a safe allotment of minutes since the playoffs started. Required to match up against the size and athleticism of the Thunder Aminu has averaged 30 minutes per game through four games. With this level of playing time he has been a safe value play going for over 20 fantasy points in each game.

MID-PRICED

Caris LeVert (DS $10,760, DK $5,900) has been showing exactly the potential everyone in Brooklyn has been talking about these past 2 years. The 76ers have no matchup for him and he has posted over 40 fantasy points in the past two games. In game 4 he moved into the starting lineup and played 42 minutes, with this level of workload he is a lock and load play on this slate.

PREMIUM

Nikola Jokic (DS $16,160, DK $9,300)is the safest premium play on this slate at his price point. There is no matchup on the Spurs for him and he has simply cranked out 50 points after 50 points this series. Even when the Spurs limited his scoring in game 1 to just 10 real points he still posted a triple double and went for over 50 fantasy points. He is a great cash game play on this slate.

Data provided by Notorious of RotoGrinders and Daily Fantasy Rankings NBA Resources

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The Daily Fantasy Rankings "Dragon" has scoured the Australian sports betting markets and found some great value picks for these games. Check out his picks for the day below and click on the links to follow his betting plays!

Dragon's Picks Odds Sportsbook
Caris LeVert Over 17.5 Points $1.80 Bet now at BetEasy!
Nikola Jokic 10+ Assists $4 Bet now at Neds!
Joel Embiid Over 26.5 Points $1.80 Bet now at Sportsbet!
Caris LeVert to Outscore JJ Reddick $1.72 Bet now at Pointsbet!

 

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