LeBron James

NBA Saturday brings another 10 game slate to cleanse ourselves with after today’s ugly 3 gamer. The usual major Saturday DFS tournaments are on offer:

We have broken down the matchups and highlighted the key plays to help you build winning lineups. For more insight into how to utilise our game breakdown data check out our NBA DFS Training Camp Series that comes out weekly:

Part 1 – Betting Lines and Totals

Part 2 – Matchup Analysis – Pace and Defense vs Position

Part 3 – Key Statistics in Daily Fantasy Basketball

Part 4 – Trade Analysis – Breaking Down the Jimmy Butler Trade

Part 5 – DraftKings Sharpshooter Winning Lineup Recap

GAME BREAKDOWN

NBA Game Breakdown

Golden State vs Milwaukee is far and away the marquee matchup on this slate in real life and for DFS purposes it has a ludicrous game total of 239.5 points, over 13 points above the second highest. The last time these two teams met the Bucks blew out Golden State at Oracle leading to the majority of players sitting out the fourth quarter. That said this game has a 1.5 point line meaning the expectation is for a high scoring tight contest.

There is just the one game without a game total and line to be set that this stage as we await injury news, which is covered below.

NBA Pace of Play

Cleveland Cavaliers players aren’t typically the most exciting to roster, however on this slate they are drawing one of the best matchups in the league vs the Sacramento Kings. They are leading the way in terms of pace up matchups and also have the largest differential in implied total to season average total points at 6.8. This is mainly due to the game line being just 2.5, something that is rare for a Cleveland game this season.

The Memphis Grizzlies have the next best pace up matchup as we see the slowest team in the league playing the third fastest in the New Orleans Pelicans. The game total is the third lowest on the slate which may mean this game goes under owned despite being an elite matchup for Memphis.

Injury News

Some of the major injury news to monitor includes:

Denver Nuggets

Gary Harris remains out for the match with the Charlotte Hornets. As mentioned on Thursday’s slate Jamal Murray (DS $12,740, DK $7,100) is the biggest beneficiary with a 3% usage bump in the 3 games he has missed this year resulting in a 9.6 fantasy increase from his season average in those games.

Harris Out Table

Miami Heat

Goran Dragic is a chance to play against Phoenix on this slate.

Wayne Ellington and Hassan Whiteside will not play against Phoenix on this slate. Whiteside is the biggest news of these three with Bam Adebayo (DS $11,070, DK $4,200) being the biggest beneficiary in the single game Hassan missed this season scoring over 10 fantasy points above his season average from 7.5 extra minutes of game time.

Whiteside Out Table

Draftstars

VALUE

As usual remember it is early to be predicting the value plays with line-ups not being confirmed until closer to tipoff.

Collin Sexton (DS $8,750, DK $4,900) has continued to play over 30 minutes a game despite George Hill returning to the lineup. His price has dipped over the past few games making him a great value play on this slate with a matchup against the Sacramento Kings who play at the second fastest pace in the league while giving up the 4th most fantasy points to point guards.

Cedi Osman (DS $8,470, DK $4,600) is also fairly priced for a player that has shown 40 point upside this season. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Sexton with Sacramento giving up the 7th most fantasy points in the league to small forwards.

Josh Jackson (DS $8,820, DK $5,500) is underpriced on Draftstars. With all of the Suns injuries he has been playing around 30 minutes per game over his past four games with all the usage he can handle averaging 29 fantasy points. Keep an eye out for TJ Warren’s status, if he returns Jackson may return to the bench unit.

Bam Adebayo (DS $11,070, DK $4,200) is a DraftKings play only with a huge price differential between the two platforms. As mentioned above Adebayo gets a significant minutes increase with Whiteside off the floor. He also has one of the best matchups in the league vs the Phoenix Suns who have given up the third most fantasy points to centers over the last 10 games.

Points Against Cs Last 10

MID PRICED

Jamal Murray (DS $12,740, DK $7,100) remains a great play with Garry Harris out due to the fact he gets such a significant usage bump as outlined above in the injuries section.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (DS $11,680, DK $6,100) is inching onto the expensive side for him, however he has shown 50 point upside this season and this is one of the best matchups in the league with the Pelicans giving up the 4th most fantasy points in the league to power forwards over the last 10 games.

Points Against PFs

Steven Adams (DS $11,950, DK $7,000) is going from one smash spot to another. He didn't quite return the value we were hoping for against Brooklyn last game, but was his usual cash game solid as a rock self with 32.5 fantasy points. On this slate he gets the Chicago Bulls who are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to centres this season. You won’t find a safer play for cash games with a floor of 32 and ceiling of around 45.

PREMIUM

DeMar DeRozan (DS $14,620, DK $8,900) matches up against the Lakers again on this slate who have given up the second most points in the league to shooting guards this season. On Thursday he returned value with 48 fantasy points and earlier this year he went for 60+ in this matchup. He makes for a solid undercover play as he will likely go over looked on a 10 game slate.

Lebron James (DS $18,700, DK $10,800) is in a matchup that should also let you get him at relatively low ownership. While most will target the high game total of Bucks Warriors, Lebron has a pace down matchup. That said the Spurs have the second worst defensive efficiency rating in the league and Lebron put up 60 fantasy points in this same matchup on Thursday.

Nikola Jokic (DS $16,040, DK $9,300) is matched up against the Charlotte Hornets who as I mentioned in Thursday’s preview I have ear marked as a team trending the wrong way in defense vs centres. I absolutely love this play on this slate as there is nothing yet that pops about the matchup across the entire season. But if you look closer Charlotte has given up the second most points to centres over the last 5 games. I recommended Towns in the same spot on Thursday who returned 70+ fantasy points at lowish ownership, Jokic could do the same on this slate.

Points Against Cs

Data provided by Notorious of RotoGrinders and Daily Fantasy Rankings NBA Resources

DraftKings

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